Zillow predicts market slowdown is on the way

Is the market frenzy coming to an end? According to Zillow’s Weekly Market Report for the week ending Sept. 26, “tapering pending sales and minimal recent growth in list prices point to an overdue seasonal market slowdown.”

According to the report, pending listings were up 22.2 percent year-over-year for the week, but have fallen 4.6 percent month-over0month and 1.5 percent week-over-week. Days on market, however, has stayed the same as August at 13 days—15 days sooner than the same week in 2019.

Inventory now stands at 35 percent below 2019 levels—the largest YoY drop in total inventory in Zillow’s history of monthly inventory records, dating back to 2013. As for new for-sale listings, they are down 9.5 percent YoY and 6.9 percent month-over-month.

Prices are much higher compared to last year. Median sale price has increased 1.2 percent month-over-month and 9.3 percent YoY. The median list price increased to $345,000 (10.4 percent over last year’s figures)—the highest YoY increase in Zillow’s weekly data history through last year.

What about consumer confidence? September experienced the strongest MoM gain since April 2003, with the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index increasing 15.5 points from August.

What’s in store for the future? Zillow expects sales to stay high but taper through 2021, remaining higher than pre-pandemic levels throughout this year and next. Additionally, home prices are expected to increase 1.2 percent from August to November, as well as increase 4.8 percent between August 2020 and August 2021.