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Real Estate Trends Have Changed Due to COVID

The coronavirus pandemic changed many things, buying and selling trends among them. The National Association of REALTORS® (NAR) recently released its annual Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers report, which found that the pandemic incentivized buyers to search out multi-generational homes, while pushing sellers to sell their properties faster.

According to the report, buyers who purchased after March were more likely to seek out multi-generational homes. These purchases accounted for 15 percent of sales after March, compared to 11 percent for those who closed before April. This may have to do with quarantining periods, during which consumers stayed home, individuals moved back in with their parents, and some worked remotely, causing people to rethink their living spaces.

“The coronavirus, without a doubt, led homebuyers to reassess their housing situations and even reconsider home sizes and destinations,” said Jessica Lautz, vice president of Demographics and Behavioral Insights at NAR. “Buyers sought housing with more rooms, more square footage and more yard space, as they may have desired a home office or home gym,” she added. “They also shopped for larger homes because extra space would allow households to better accommodate older adult relatives or young adults that are now living within the residence. So many sellers were eager to get out of their old home and move to something bigger that would better meet their needs during quarantine.”

Due to a growing interest in having more space, as well as added privacy, buyers who purchased after March were likely to relocate to the suburbs and pay more for that home. On average, buyers who purchased before April spent $270,000 on a property. After April, that number increased to $339,400, on average. According to NAR, the longevity of homes may shrink for these purchasers, with post-April buyers likely to stay in their home for 10 years compared to the 15 years forecast for pre-April buyers.

COVID also impacted people’s sense of immediacy. NAR found that owners who sold in 2020 were more likely to say their need to sell was “at least somewhat urgent.” In addition, 18 percent of those who sold in April or later likely sold because their home was too small, compared to the 13 percent before April.

There was a demographics-related impact as well. The average buyer age is 55, found NAR—an all-time high. The average first-time buyer was 33 years old, and first-time buyers made up 31 percent of all buyers, down from 33 percent in 2019 and the lowest percentage since 1987. NAR also reported a slight rebound in single women buyers, from 17 percent to 18 percent YoY.

In terms of searching and the purchasing process, starting online has continued to grow in popularity. According to NAR, 97 percent of buyers searched for their home online—the highest percentage and up from last year’s 93 percent. On average, buyers looked at nine homes in person and an additional five homes via online virtual tour. Most buyers (88 percent) used an agent to purchase their home—a near-historical high. Ninety-one percent of buyers said they would “definitely” or “probably” use the same agent in the future.

“Some buyers purchased their homes before ever physically seeing them in person,” said Lautz. “They researched, viewed photos online and did virtual tours from their computers and phones, and ultimately made an offer through their agent.”

“REALTORS® did their part in not only keeping afloat America’s real estate industry, but also in helping sustain our nation’s economy as it faced unprecedented and unexpected challenges throughout the past year,” said NAR President Vince Malta, broker at Malta & Co., Inc., in San Francisco, Calif. “We are all in unknown territory with this pandemic, so it’s no surprise that more buyers than ever turned to agents to help them navigate through some of the uncertainties and one of the most complex, competitive markets any of us have ever seen.”

To read the entire report, click here.

For more information, please visit www.nar.realtor.Liz Dominguez is RISMedia’s senior online editor.

From Housing Wire

This week’s dip marks 13 consecutive weeks of rates below 3%

October 22, 2020, 10:01 am By Alex Roha

The average U.S. mortgage rate for a 30-year fixed loan fell to 2.8% this week, another record low, Freddie Mac said in a report on Thursday. The rate fell one basis points from the week prior and is now six basis points lower than the original all-time low set in mid-September.

The average fixed rate for a 15-year mortgage was 2.33%, falling from last week’s 2.35%.

After this week’s dip, there have now been 13 consecutive weeks when average mortgage rates have been below 3%, and rates have broken records 11 times this year.

“Mortgage rates remain very low, providing homeowners who have not already taken advantage of this environment ample opportunity to do so,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist. “Mortgage rates today are on average more than a full percentage point lower than rates over the last five years.”

In March, in an effort to buffer the economic blows from the shutdown, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell announced the Fed would start buying bonds to prevent a credit crunch and make borrowing cheaper. According to Fed data, the central bank has bought over $1 trillion in bonds backed by home loans since then.

While purchase loans are seeing record-low rates, the adverse market fee imposed on refinance loans by the FHFA in August make record lows for those loans unlikely.

During this week’s Mortgage Bankers Association annual event, the heads of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac discussed the adverse market fee.

“As you know, safety and soundness is one, two, and three for us,” said Fannie Mae CEO Hugh Frater. “And for us to play our role in all markets, good and bad, markets small and large, we have to do it safely and soundly with long-term risk management in mind. And that’s the rationale for this change, as the GSEs are shouldering significant risks associated with the pandemic — as the principal risk taker, we have to price that risk appropriately.”

He added that while the housing market has demonstrated real resiliency, “many millions of borrowers are under stress, there’s still significant risk caused by economic uncertainty both in the near term and the longer term. And we’re required by law and regulation to be compensated for these risks and these costs.”

Freddie Mac CEO David Brickman struck a similar tone, saying that the GSEs have provided “extraordinary support” to the market.

“Costs have changed, risks have changed. What we put in place is an appropriate and prudent response to that change in the external environment for us to support struggling homeowners.”

They both noted that with interest rates still low, borrowers will realize savings, even with the 50 basis point refinance fee factored in. “But obviously, anybody who’s refinancing their mortgage at a lower rate is already beginning to save in terms of their mortgage payments, this only means they save just a little bit less than they would have otherwise,” said Brickman.

September 23, 2020, 2:08 pm By David Stevens

Published in Housingwire

Let me be contrarian: Get ready, because mortgage rates are going to rise in 2021. Now before you respond, just read the rest as to why.

The Mortgage Bankers Association in its most recent forecast sees two things that stand out. First, 2020 will prove itself to be the second biggest mortgage year in history. Topping $3 trillion will put it only behind 2003 in single family mortgage production history.

Second, the MBA joined the GSEs and other economists who forecast a significant drop in mortgage production in 2021, with most estimating declines in the range of $700 – $800 billion year over year.

Some will try to argue, “but wait, Powell said the Federal Reserve would keep rates low for the foreseeable future! You must be wrong.” There is a difference here. Yes, the Fed will likely keep short rates low, but mortgage rates and some longer-term Treasuries likely won’t enjoy the same ride.

Here are the reasons why upward pressure on mortgage rates could stall the refinance wave and cut overall national originations volume in 2021:

1. The Fed: The Federal reserve is the single biggest buyer of agency mortgage backed securities (MBS) in the world. According to the Urban Institute, “In March the Fed bought $292.2 billion in agency MBS, and April clocked in at $295.1 billion, the largest two months of mortgage purchases ever; and well over 100 percent of gross issuance for each of those two months. After the market stabilized, the Fed slowed its purchases to around $100 billion per month in May, June and July. Fed purchases in July were $104.6 billion, 35 percent of monthly issuance, still sizable from a historical perspective.”

The question is what happens after a covid vaccine and a normalization of economic activity which is expected next year. The Fed is already being very careful not to commit to MBS purchases after the end of this year, a lack of commitment very different to their clear stance on fed funds. If the fed continues to slow or stop, something which is inevitable, the supply imbalance will force rates higher as MBS prices drop in search buyers to take up the excess.

2. The Debt: The national debt is now at 100% of GDP, the highest level since WWII. Per CBO’s September paper, “By the end of 2020, federal debt held by the public is projected to equal 98% of GDP. The projected budget deficits would boost federal debt to 104% of GDP in 2021, to 107% of GDP (the highest amount in the nation’s history) in 2023, and to 195% of GDP by 2050.”

The CBO’s projections for the U.S. deficits looking forward and the mounting debt load threaten the nation’s ability to do many things, as the majority of spending will be to mandatory expenditures that include interest on the growing debt load. Inflationary pressure will result from the need to finance these deficits through new issuance of treasuries, thus putting upward pressure across the stack of interest rates, a far different outcome than what the Fed may do to keep short rates low.

3. The GSE Capital Rule: The FHFA just closed off the comment window on the proposed capital rule for Fannie and Freddie. This rule is a critical component to FHFA’s plan to release the GSEs from conservatorship. The proposed rule is considered onerous by many with the consensus view stating in comment letters that rates would rise between 20-30 bps. Former Freddie Mac CEO Don Layton, former Arch MI CEO Andrew Reppert, and Fannie Mae each stated the same in their comment letters.

4. The Adverse Market Fee: This arbitrary add-on for most refinance mortgages from the GSEs of 50 bps equates to roughly an increase in rate of .125. This goes into effect on Dec. 1 of this year.

5. Release from Conservatorship: FHFA Director Calabria is working feverishly to release Fannie and Freddie from conservatorship and moving at a pace to lock in as much of this as possible quickly given the risk of an administration change. There have been outcries from MBS investors, including some of the largest buyers.

As reported, in a letter to Mark Calabria, director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, PIMCO said freeing the companies by executive fiat would be interpreted by investors as an end to the government’s guarantee of the MBS. “That would boost mortgage rates and force some investors to sell the bonds,” the PIMCO executives said. Investors would demand a higher return for the increased risk. “Mortgage rates will increase, homeownership will likely suffer and the national mortgage rate will no longer exist,” the executives wrote.

For those in the mortgage industry, it doesn’t take all of these things to result in the forecasted 700-800 billion drop next year. Frankly just the slowing of MBS purchases and the implementation of the capital rule alone would do it. In fact, MBA’s forecast of the volume decline assumes only the slightest increase in mortgage rates, remaining in the low 3% range next year. In my conversations with economists, the view is that we will end the year with a good first quarter in 2021 simply based on year end overflow.

The second quarter may start off well, but the general sense is that by the third and fourth quarters the market will reflect the impact of coupon burn out and any of these events above beginning to take shape. One thing for certain is that the Fed does not like being in this deep, we saw that following QE activities during the Great Recession.

As MBA’sFratantoni states in his recent Housing Wire article, “2020 has been a banner year for mortgage originators and the millions of households who have benefitted from record-low rates through refinancing. The industry will enjoy this boom for a while longer, but our expectation is that the refi wave is cresting.”

“Make hay while the sun shines” is an old expression. The sun is clearly shining on our industry this year. But it’s important for mortgage banking executives to not misread the statements of Chairman Powell as a commitment to anything more than short rates. The rally you are experiencing this year is due to interventions in the market due to a pandemic recession. Normalization will take out buyers, eliminate the supply “short,” and inflation will ultimately do its thing on rates just enough to cut the market by 25%-30% in 2021 and a bit more in 2022.

Planning ahead for that environment is critically important as market contractions will reduce spreads as well as volume. Thinking about the appropriate right sizing and forward-looking market strategies now will separate the winners from the rest.

Is the market frenzy coming to an end? According to Zillow’s Weekly Market Report for the week ending Sept. 26, “tapering pending sales and minimal recent growth in list prices point to an overdue seasonal market slowdown.”

According to the report, pending listings were up 22.2 percent year-over-year for the week, but have fallen 4.6 percent month-over0month and 1.5 percent week-over-week. Days on market, however, has stayed the same as August at 13 days—15 days sooner than the same week in 2019.

Inventory now stands at 35 percent below 2019 levels—the largest YoY drop in total inventory in Zillow’s history of monthly inventory records, dating back to 2013. As for new for-sale listings, they are down 9.5 percent YoY and 6.9 percent month-over-month.

Prices are much higher compared to last year. Median sale price has increased 1.2 percent month-over-month and 9.3 percent YoY. The median list price increased to $345,000 (10.4 percent over last year’s figures)—the highest YoY increase in Zillow’s weekly data history through last year.

What about consumer confidence? September experienced the strongest MoM gain since April 2003, with the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index increasing 15.5 points from August.

What’s in store for the future? Zillow expects sales to stay high but taper through 2021, remaining higher than pre-pandemic levels throughout this year and next. Additionally, home prices are expected to increase 1.2 percent from August to November, as well as increase 4.8 percent between August 2020 and August 2021.